Projected local rain events due to climate change and the impacts on waterborne diseases in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Climate change is increasing the number and intensity of extreme weather events in many parts of the world. Precipitation extremes have been linked to both outbreaks and sporadic cases of waterborne illness. We have previously shown a link between heavy rain and turbidity to population-level risk of sporadic cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in a major Canadian urban population. The risk increased with 30 or more dry days in the 60 days preceding the week of extreme rain. The goal of this study was to investigate the change in cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis risk due to climate change, primarily change in extreme precipitation. METHODS: Cases of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis were extracted from a reportable disease system (1997-2009). We used distributed lag non-linear Poisson regression models and projections of the exposure-outcome relationship to estimate future illness (2020-2099). The climate projections are derived from twelve statistically downscaled regional climate models. Relative Concentration Pathway 8.5 was used to project precipitation derived from daily gridded weather observation data (~ 6 × 10 km resolution) covering the central of three adjacent watersheds serving metropolitan Vancouver for the 2020s, 2040s, 2060s and 2080s. RESULTS: Precipitation is predicted to steadily increase in these watersheds during the wet season (Oct. -Mar.) and decrease in other parts of the year up through the 2080s. More weeks with extreme rain (>90th percentile) are expected. These weeks are predicted to increase the annual rates of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis by approximately 16% by the 2080s corresponding to an increase of 55-136 additional cases per year depending upon the climate model used. The predicted increase in the number of waterborne illness cases are during the wet months. The range in future projections compared to historical monthly case counts typically differed by 10-20% across climate models but the direction of change was consistent for all models. DISCUSSION: If new water filtration measures had not been implemented in our study area in 2010-2015, the risk of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis would have been expected to increase with climate change, particularly precipitation changes. In addition to the predicted increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, the frequency and length of wet and dry spells could also affect the risk of waterborne diseases as we observed in the historical period. These findings add to the growing evidence regarding the need to prepare water systems to manage and become resilient to climate change-related health risks.

Associations between extreme precipitation and acute gastro-intestinal illness due to cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in an urban Canadian drinking water system (1997-2009).

Drinking water related infections are expected to increase in the future due to climate change. Understanding the current links between these infections and environmental factors is vital to understand and reduce the future burden of illness. We investigated the relationship between weekly reported cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis (n = 7,422), extreme precipitation (>90th percentile), drinking water turbidity, and preceding dry periods in a drinking water system located in greater Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada (1997-2009) using distributed lag non-linear Poisson regression models adjusted for seasonality, secular trend, and the effect of holidays on reporting. We found a significant increase in cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis 4-6 weeks after extreme precipitation. The effect was greater following a dry period. Similarly, extreme precipitation led to significantly increased turbidity only after prolonged dry periods. Our results suggest that the risk of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis increases with extreme precipitation, and that the effects are more pronounced after a prolonged dry period. Given that extreme precipitation events are expected to increase with climate change, it is important to further understand the risks from these events, develop planning tools, and build resilience to these future risks.

Estimated protective effectiveness of intramuscular immune serum globulin post-exposure prophylaxis during a measles outbreak in British Columbia, Canada, 2014.

INTRODUCTION: Intramuscular Immune Serum Globulin (IM ISG) is recommended as post-measles exposure prophylaxis (PEP) when administered within 6days of initial exposure, with variable effectiveness in preventing measles disease. Effectiveness of IM ISG PEP in preventing clinical measles was assessed during a 2014 measles outbreak among a religious-affiliated community in British Columbia, Canada. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Fifty-five self-reporting measles susceptible contacts were offered exclusively IM ISG PEP within an eligibility period best surmised to be within 6days of initial measles case exposure. Clinical outcome of IM ISG PEP recipients was determined by selective active surveillance and case self-reporting. IM ISG PEP failure was defined as onset of a measles-like rash 8-21days post-IM ISG PEP. Post-IM ISG PEP measles IgG antibody level was tested in 8 recipients. Factors associated with measles disease were analyzed. RESULTS: Seventeen of 55 IM ISG PEP recipients developed clinically consistent measles in the following 8-21days, corresponding to an estimated crude protective effectiveness of 69%. In school aged children 5-18years, among whom potential exposure intensity and immune status confounders were considered less likely, estimated IM ISG PEP protective effectiveness was 50%. Age <25years was significantly associated with breakthrough clinical measles in bivariate analysis (p=0.0217). Among 8 tested contacts of 17 considered IM ISG PEP failures, post-IM ISG PEP measles IgG antibody levels (mean 16.3days (range 16-17days) post-PEP) were all <150mIU/ml. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated crude IM ISG PEP protective effectiveness against measles disease within 8-21days post-ISG administration was 69%. Accuracy of this estimated protective effectiveness is vulnerable to assumptions and uncertainties in ascertaining exposure details and pre-exposure immune status. Increasing the Canadian recommended measles IM ISG PEP dose from 0.25 to 0.5ml/kg (up to 15ml maximum volume) may increase protective effectiveness.

Transmission dynamics and risk factors for pandemic H1N1-related illness: outbreak investigation in a rural community of British Columbia, Canada.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize the first-wave epidemiologic features of influenza-like illness (ILI) associated with the novel pandemic A/H1N1 [A(H1N1)pdm09] virus. METHODS: We used generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) to assess risk factors and non-parametric and/or parametric distributions to estimate attack rates, secondary attack rates (SAR), duration of illness, and serial interval during a laboratory-confirmed community outbreak of A(H1N1)pdm09 clustered around on-reserve residents and households of an elementary school in rural British Columbia, Canada, in late April/early May 2009. ILI details were collected as part of outbreak investigation by community telephone survey in early June 2009. RESULTS: Overall, 92/408 (23%) of participants developed ILI and 36/408 (9%) experienced medically attended ILI (MAILI). The overall SAR in households was 22%: highest among participants 1-4 years of age (yoa) (50%) followed by < 1 yoa (38%), 5-8 yoa (20%), 10-19 yoa (13%), 20-49 yoa (20%), and 50-64 yoa (0%). The median serial interval was estimated at 3·5 days (95% CI: 2·1-5·1). In multivariable GLMM analysis, having a chronic condition (OR: 2·58; 95% CI: 1·1-6·04), younger age [1-8 yoa: OR: 4·63; 95% CI: 2·25-9·52; 9-19 yoa: OR: 1·95; 95% CI: 0·97-3·9 (referent: ≥ 20 yoa)] and receipt of 2008-2009 influenza vaccine (OR: 2·68; 95% CI: 1·37-5·25) were associated with increased risk of ILI. Median duration of illness was 9 days, longer among those with chronic conditions (21 days). Median time to seeking care after developing illness was 4·5 days. On-reserve participants had higher chronic conditions, household density, ILI, MAILI, and SAR. CONCLUSIONS: During a community outbreak of A(H1N1)pdm09-related illness, we identified substantial clinical ILI attack rates exceeding 20% with secondary household attack rates as high as 50% in young children. The serial interval was short suggesting a narrow period to prevent transmission.

Whole-genome sequencing and social-network analysis of a tuberculosis outbreak.

BACKGROUND: An outbreak of tuberculosis occurred over a 3-year period in a medium-size community in British Columbia, Canada. The results of mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit-variable-number tandem-repeat (MIRU-VNTR) genotyping suggested the outbreak was clonal. Traditional contact tracing did not identify a source. We used whole-genome sequencing and social-network analysis in an effort to describe the outbreak dynamics at a higher resolution. METHODS: We sequenced the complete genomes of 32 Mycobacterium tuberculosis outbreak isolates and 4 historical isolates (from the same region but sampled before the outbreak) with matching genotypes, using short-read sequencing. Epidemiologic and genomic data were overlaid on a social network constructed by means of interviews with patients to determine the origins and transmission dynamics of the outbreak. RESULTS: Whole-genome data revealed two genetically distinct lineages of M. tuberculosis with identical MIRU-VNTR genotypes, suggesting two concomitant outbreaks. Integration of social-network and phylogenetic analyses revealed several transmission events, including those involving "superspreaders." Both lineages descended from a common ancestor and had been detected in the community before the outbreak, suggesting a social, rather than genetic, trigger. Further epidemiologic investigation revealed that the onset of the outbreak coincided with a recorded increase in crack cocaine use in the community. CONCLUSIONS: Through integration of large-scale bacterial whole-genome sequencing and social-network analysis, we show that a socioenvironmental factor--most likely increased crack cocaine use--triggered the simultaneous expansion of two extant lineages of M. tuberculosis that was sustained by key members of a high-risk social network. Genotyping and contact tracing alone did not capture the true dynamics of the outbreak. (Funded by Genome British Columbia and others.).

Chasing the dragon - characterizing cases of leukoencephalopathy associated with heroin inhalation in British Columbia.

An association between leukoencephalopathy, a disease of the white matter of the brain, and smoking heroin is well recognized. This paper describes 27 cases of leukoencephalopathy identified in two cities in British Columbia, Canada 2001-2006; the largest number of geographically and temporally defined reported cases in North America.Twenty cases of leukoencephalopathy were identified in and around Vancouver with onset dates December 2001 to July 2003; seven further cases were identified in Victoria September 2005-August 2006. Twenty (74%) of all cases were male, two couples were reported and eleven cases (55%) had Asian ethnicity. One case reported smoking heroin on a single occasion and developed mild symptoms; all other cases were hospitalized. Thirteen (48%) cases died; all had smoked heroin for a minimum of 3 years. Testing of one available heroin sample identified no substance other than common cutting agents.Although a specific etiology was not identified our study supports the theory of an intermittent exposure to a toxic agent added to the heroin or a combustion by-product. It also suggests a dose response effect rather than genetic predisposition. Collaboration with public health, health professionals, law enforcement and persons who use illegal drugs, will facilitate the early identification of cases to enable timely and complete follow-up including obtaining samples. Testing of implicated heroin samples may allow identification of the contaminant and therefore prevent further cases. It is therefore important to ensure key stakeholders are aware of our findings.

Seasonal influenza vaccine and increased risk of pandemic A/H1N1­related illness: first detection of the association in British Columbia, Canada.

BACKGROUND: In April 2009, an elementary school outbreak of pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza was reported in a community in northern British Columbia, Canada--an area that includes both non-Aboriginal and Aboriginal residents living on or off a reserve. During the outbreak investigation, we explored the relationship between prior receipt of trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) and pH1N1-related illness. METHODS: A telephone survey was conducted from 15 May through 5 June 2009 among households of children attending any school in the affected community. Members of participating households where influenza-like illness (ILI) was described were then invited to submit blood samples for confirmation of pH1N1 infection by hemagglutination inhibition and microneutralization assays. Circulation of pH1N1 was concentrated among households of the elementary school and elsewhere-reserve to which analyses of TIV effect were thus restricted. Odds ratios (ORs) for the TIV effect on ILI were computed through logistic regression, with adjustment for age, comorbidity, household density, and Aboriginal status. The influence of within-household clustering was assessed through generalized-linear-mixed models. RESULTS: Of 408 participants, 92 (23%) met ILI criteria: 29 (32%) of 92 persons with ILI, compared with 61 (19%) 316 persons without ILI, had received the 2008-2009 formulation of TIV. Fully adjusted ORs for 2008-2009 TIV effect on ILI were 2.45 (95% confidence interval, 1.34-4.48) by logistic regression and 2.68 [95% confidence interval, 1.37-5.25) by generalized-linear-mixed model. CONCLUSIONS: An outbreak investigation in British Columbia during the late spring of 2009 provided the first indication of an unexpected association between receipt of TIV and pH1N1 illness. This led to 5 additional studies through the summer 2009 in Canada, each of which corroborated these initial findings.

Cluster of cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome among Toronto healthcare workers after implementation of infection control precautions: a case series.

OBJECTIVE: To review the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) infection control practices, the types of exposure to patients with SARS, and the activities associated with treatment of such patients among healthcare workers (HCWs) who developed SARS in Toronto, Canada, after SARS-specific infection control precautions had been implemented. METHODS: A retrospective review of work logs and patient assignments, detailed review of medical records of patients with SARS, and comprehensive telephone-based interviews of HCWs who met the case definition for SARS after implementation of infection control precautions. RESULTS: Seventeen HCWs from 6 hospitals developed disease that met the case definition for SARS after implementation of infection control precautions. These HCWs had a mean age (+/-SD) of 39+/-2.3 years. Two HCWs were not interviewed because of illness. Of the remaining 15, only 9 (60%) reported that they had received formal infection control training. Thirteen HCWs (87%) were unsure of proper order in which personal protective equipment should be donned and doffed. Six HCWs (40%) reused items (eg, stethoscopes, goggles, and cleaning equipment) elsewhere on the ward after initial use in a room in which a patient with SARS was staying. Use of masks, gowns, gloves, and eyewear was inconsistent among HCWs. Eight (54%) reported that they were aware of a breach in infection control precautions. HCWs reported fatigue due to an increased number and length of shifts; participants worked a median of 10 shifts during the 10 days before onset of symptoms. Seven HCWs were involved in the intubation of a patient with SARS. One HCW died, and the remaining 16 recovered. CONCLUSION: Multiple factors were likely responsible for SARS in these HCWs, including the performance of high-risk patient care procedures, inconsistent use of personal protective equipment, fatigue, and lack of adequate infection control training.

Back to work: correlates of employment among persons receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy.

The aim of this study was to quantify the level of employment at one-year and to determine potential predictors of future employment among HIV-positive persons on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in the province of British Columbia. Of the 392 individuals that were initially unemployed at baseline 63 (16.1%) found a job over the subsequent year. Factors associated with becoming employed included a baseline income over 10,000 dollars, having long-term disability or unemployment insurance as an income source, having higher CD4 cell counts, and better physical, social, and role functioning. Factors negatively associated with finding employment included having provincial assistance as an income source and having ever been an injection drug user (IDU). In multivariate analyses, not using provincial assistance as a source of income (Odds Ratio [OR] = 7.39; 95% CI: 3.26-16.7; p < 0.001) and higher MOS-SF role functioning (OR = 1.12 per 10 point increment; 95% CI: 1.03-1.21; p = 0.005) were independent predictors of becoming employed. In conclusion, our study demonstrates that while significant advances have been made in the reduction of HIV-related mortality, the majority of HIV-infected individuals on adequate treatment are still unable to be gainfully employed.